Blog Entry

Rangers' Darvish bid is about $52M; work to do

Posted on: January 9, 2012 11:19 am
Edited on: January 24, 2012 8:44 pm
The Texas Rangers are offering about "Dice K money'' to star Japanese righthander Yu Darvish, sources told, and there's no evidence a deal is at hand.

The expression "Dice K money'' would mean the offer is someone in the range of $52 million, although it isn't known whether the Rangers' proposal is for exactly that amount or exactly six years, as Daisuke Matsuzaka received from the Red Sox (it may be for five). In any case, it seems clear Texas wants to use Matsuzaka's $52-million deal as a barometer for a deal, while Darvish's side apparently hopes to successfully argue that he's the better pitcher and thus deserves a higher contract. Ultimately, the Rangers may go a bit higher than Matsuzaka's contract, but the plan seems to be to keep it within shouting distance, particularly with $51.7 million committed to the posting fee, money that goes to the Nippon-Ham Fighters.

Everyone has assumed there'd be a deal by the Jan. 18 deadline, and there would still seem to be too many reasons for the sides to come together. But at the moment, the evidece suggests they are not on the precipice of a deal for the pitcher who went 18-6 with a 1.44 ERA and led the Pacific League with 276 strikeouts while pitching for the Fighters.

The Rangers are concentrating completely on Darvish at the moment, and if a deal is struck, their chances to make a real run at star free agent slugger Prince Fielder would be diminished. However, in the event no agreement can be reached, the chances they'd pursue Fielder would probably significantly increase. They have checked in on free agent reliever Ryan Madson and there was a report they did the same with free agent starter Hiroki Kuroda, as well, although there's no evidence those contacts are related to any concern about the Darvish talks.

The Rangers' winning bid to negotiate with Darvish was precisely $51,703,411, with the 34 and 11 tributes to the uniform numbers of Rangers president Nolan Ryan and Darvish himself. The Red Sox won the right to Matsuzaka with a bid of $51,111,111. So there is a parallel in those numbers, anyway.

Category: MLB

Since: Dec 7, 2008
Posted on: January 11, 2012 10:33 am

Rangers' Darvish bid is about $52M; work to do

At Booya...I am more of a Yankee fan than anyone you know having rarely missed a game since the Horace Clarke era..unlike Dice-K,Darvish was handled with alot more discretion.His innings did not spike considerably above 200 until last year.His arm slot and effortless delivery are major reasons for his success in addition to the monsterous numbers he has put up.I have followed this guys career since his high school days and he is NOT your typical Japanese import!He is not Dice-K,or anyone else for that matter and people should stop saddling Darvish with the shortcommings of every other Japanese pitcher that has failed!Its Yankee fans like you that give us a bad name,overlooking the successes and smart decisions of other teams in baseball because you believe that no other team even has a less could possibly be better!!I am proud and loyal as fan can be of our dominance in baseball history...but it does not belong solely to us by any stretch...and in my opinion..the Texas Rangers just made any of our future successes that much sweeter by raising the level of competition that it will take for the Yankees to add to that dominance!!!I'm hoping I'm wrong about Darvish,but I think Cashman blew this one!!!!

Since: Feb 2, 2007
Posted on: January 10, 2012 11:36 pm

US Media looking at it all Wrong

Everything is in terms of US dollars.  The winning bid was a "record" and above Dice K's posting fee.  The Ranger's offer is "in the Dice K range" of 52M USD.  But Davish is Japanese!  The exchange rate has changed dramatically.  In yen, the Ranger's posting fee is far below the posting fee paid by the Red Sox!!  In 2007, the exchange rate was about 115 yen to the dollar.  In 2011, you can only get about 80 yen for a dollar.  Doing the math:  Dice K's fee was almost 6BY and Darvish's comes out to about 4BY.

Typical of Americans to be so US - centric of course, we rarely take the time to see things from other people's perspective.

Since: Feb 2, 2007
Posted on: January 10, 2012 9:09 pm

Rangers' Darvish bid is about $52M; work to do

Please provide evidence that the average Japanese hitter is only as good as the average AA hitter.  If I recall, didn't the Japanese team, led by Ichiro, Dice K and Yu Darvish, knock the US out?  Didn't Japan win both WBC tournaments?  Two golds for Japan, zero medals for the US.  Hmmm...  (Granted, it seems like half or more of MLB talent comes from Latin America now anyways).  Most reputable baseball sources (ie Baseball Prospectus) estimate the quality of Japanese baseball to be slightly above AAA, but below MLB standards. 

Since: Dec 24, 2009
Posted on: January 10, 2012 6:15 pm

Rangers' Darvish bid is about $52M; work to do

The Rangers taking a chance on Darvish may not be anything like the gamble most on these boards seem to think. After all, they have experience with a pitcher from Japan... you know, Colby Lewis. I don't know if the Rangers consulted Colby in re: Yu Darvish. Since he may someday affect whether or not Colby is resigned by the Rangers when his current contract is up, I hope they did not. But whether they did consult him or not, they still get an idea of what it takes for a pitcher to be successful in both Japan and the Major Leagues.

As a Ranger fan, I am looking forward to seeing the two sides come together so Darvish can get ready for the season ahead. It does seem strange the Rangers would let C.J. walk and spend half again the amount of money he got for an unproven player. But I trust this front office in making that decision. After all, when they signed Colby Lewis they guaranteed him he would be in the starting rotation. I don't think any other clubs that were interested in him made that guarantee. The Rangers had obviously done their homework and I have no reason to believe they haven't done their due diligence with Yu Darvish.

Since: Mar 9, 2008
Posted on: January 10, 2012 5:32 pm
This comment has been removed.

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Since: Dec 29, 2006
Posted on: January 10, 2012 5:00 pm

Rangers' Darvish bid is about $52M; work to do

This is always funny. New kid on block (could be better) wants more money that the old kid got. Dice K got $52 million. Or whatever amount. Maybe Dice K was a good acquisition but not at the price. Maskes no difference. Me want more. My hunch is that Darvish isn't worth what he wants. I am also aghast at the cost to get to negotiate. Only because Texas lost CJ would they even be considering such a move.  You are talking about a final cost in the Pujols range for a player who hasn't done squat. In the long run, maybe everyone would be better off letting them stay in Japan until they are free agents.

Since: Jul 10, 2008
Posted on: January 10, 2012 4:58 pm

Rangers' Darvish bid is about $52M; work to do

Just being a Ranger fan I am praying he does not get signed.  I also hope Fielder doens't get signed.  I really just hope they save their money for proven guys such as Hamels or Grienke next year and then make a hard run after Votto if he hits the market in two years which I think he will.  You don't have to be a genius to know

Votto + Grienke/Hamels > Fielder + Darvish 

Since: May 26, 2011
Posted on: January 10, 2012 3:53 pm

Rangers' Darvish bid is about $52M; work to do

Seriously, 6 months of off season, they couldn't get this done every year?
The GM sits down with the agents and hammers it out.
25 contracts every fall.

You do realize that the system you propose would probably cost the teams MORE than the current system, and might not do any better at getting value for the money, right?

For every player that "quits" on his contract, or gets injured, there is another who greatly out-performs his contract.  Think about those players that sign a long deal at a fairly steady yearly amount, only to see long-term offers to the next batch of players go up sharply. 

I realize it is frustrating to see a team pay a player alot who is past his prime, but those same contracts are usually bargains in their first years.  Plus, since future money is less valuable than current money, and since future success is less valuable than current success, it makes sense for a team to pay more than a player is worth at the back end to get him (and others) playing together NOW.

And that doesn't even get into the logistical issues you concede to, regarding essentially everyone being a free agent.  I'm just saying it wouldn't even save the teams money or on average, deliver better value.

Since: Feb 27, 2010
Posted on: January 10, 2012 3:19 pm

Rangers' Darvish bid is about $52M; work to do

Big risk, big reward for the Rangers. In their ballpark, I can't believe Prince wouldn't go nuts bombing balls out of the park. I do respect Nolan Ryan, though, and you can bet HE believes that Darvish will be a success in the MLB. Nolan Ryan certainly knows pitching.

As a side comment, I wonder what Ichiro would've done if he hadn't bulked up on steroids. Can't take him seriously with the taint of steroids hanging over him, can we?

Poor Bagwell...he deserves better.

Since: Sep 20, 2006
Posted on: January 10, 2012 2:40 pm

Rangers' Darvish bid is about $52M; work to do

Lets be realistic.

Ichiro is a very good player, but even he's a marginal MLB Hall of Fame candidate. Matsui was a good but limited power hitter, not worthy of HOF mention...yet these were ELITE players in Japan- the equivilent of Ty Cobb and Hank Aaron.

To attempt to use these guys as a defense that Japanese pitchers stats or talent equate to MLB, is a sad fantasy. Japanese pitchers do OCCASSIONALLY face MLB quality hitters....but the fact is, EVERY hitter on EVERY team in MLB, is by definition MLB quality, not just an occasional hitter. The equivilent of the average Japanese hitter isn't found in MLB, it's found in the minor leagues at about the Double-A level. It's the reason dominating Japanese starting itchers ERA's of 2.00 suddenly become 4.50 ERA's in MLB.

Darvish is big and strong and has MLB quality metrics....maybe he IS the exception, but generally, paying $100 million for a Japanese pitcher is just an irresponsible prescription for disappointment, and a waste of money.   

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